Estimation
How the Council turns requirements into the Quest's time: AI estimate, Wizard approval, General commitment.
Every Quest gets a time estimate before the King approves it. The estimate is produced from the Council’s materials by an AI estimator, reviewed by the Wizard, and committed by the General. The committed number becomes the Quest’s time.
How the number is calculated
An estimate scores the Quest on four factors:
| Factor | Range | What it captures |
|---|---|---|
| Development Depth | 1–3 | How technically deep the work is. |
| Development Scope | 1–5 | How much there is to build. |
| Uncertainty | 1–3 | How much is still unknown. |
| Quest Bar | 1–3 | The quality bar the work must meet. |
Each score maps to a multiplier, and the hours are:
total hours = base hours × Depth × Scope × Uncertainty × Quest Bar (+ extra hours added by the General)A Quest scoring the neutral point on every factor is worth exactly the base hours. The base hours and every multiplier are set by the King in Estimation settings.
Step 1 — The Wizard runs the AI estimate
Upload at least one Markdown file
The button stays disabled until there is one: “Upload at least one Markdown (.md) file to start estimating.” Links are never read.
Click Start Estimating
In the Contribution Materials card. The estimator reads the Quest name, description and all Markdown materials (“Reading your materials…”).
Review the result
The estimate lands as Proposed, and the Estimation Prediction Completed window opens.
The review window shows:
- the four scores and the hours breakdown,
- the AI’s Rationale, Assumptions, and what it Could not determine,
- Comparable closed Quests with how long they actually took. The estimate is marked Uncalibrated until enough comparable Quests exist.
- a Notes box for your decision.
Then choose:
| Button | Effect |
|---|---|
| Approve | Sends the estimate to the General (“Approved — sent to the General”). |
| ReDo | Runs the AI again. The new version replaces the old one. |
| Cancel | Closes the window. Reopen it with Review Estimate. |
Step 2 — The General confirms and sets it
When the estimate is approved, the General sees Review Estimated Time and clicks Confirm Estimation. The window has two tabs:
- Shows the General’s estimated total next to the AI original.
- Adjust any of the four factor scores.
- Turn on Add Extra Total Hours to add hours on top. A written Reason is required for extra hours.
Click Confirm Estimation. The estimate is now Set (“Set at X h”) and reads “Committed by {name} — this is the Quest’s time”. Setting it also recalculates the Quest’s expected closure date.
The General can reopen Confirm Estimation later to adjust a Set estimate; every change creates a new version.
Setting factors by hand
If the Council does not want the AI, the General can click Set Factors Manually when no estimate exists, score the factors directly, and commit them in one go.
When materials change
Adding a Markdown file, or removing one the estimate used, does not invalidate the estimate. The panel shows a banner instead:
The Markdown files changed after this estimate was produced. It still stands until you estimate again.
The Wizard can click Estimate again. That produces a new Proposed version, replaces every live version (including a Set one), and the Wizard → General flow repeats. Non-Markdown files never trigger the banner.
Versions and history
Every estimate is a version. A new version (AI, ReDo, manual, or the General’s confirmation) supersedes the previous ones, so nothing is overwritten. When there are two or more versions, open History to see each version’s status, hours, factor scores and the Wizard’s notes.
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Proposed | Waiting for the Wizard. |
| Approved | The Wizard approved it; waiting for the General. |
| Set | Committed by the General. This is the Quest’s time. |
| Superseded | Replaced by a newer version. |
Who can see the estimate
| Who | Sees |
|---|---|
| Council members (and Super Admins) | Every version, while it is being worked out. |
| The King | Only committed (Set) estimates, as soon as the General commits them. |
| Heroes and other Quest members | Only the committed estimate, and only after the King approves the Council. |
So a number the Council has not settled never reads as the Quest’s time. On the Quest page, the Quest estimation card shows “The estimate appears here once the General commits it and the King approves the council.” until then.